The latest projections from Statistics Canada reveal a mixed outlook for Canadian farmers this year. While soybean production is expected to increase, wheat and canola yields are predicted to decline due to dry conditions in western Canada.
Overall, plant health in the Canadian prairies is significantly lower than normal, with below-average rainfall and high temperatures. This raises concerns about reduced yields. However, eastern Canada has experienced above-average rainfall since the start of the year, and temperatures during the last month of the growing season were slightly warmer than usual.
According to the most recent yield model estimates using satellite imagery and agroclimatic data, wheat production is forecasted to decrease by 13.1% compared to last year, reaching 29.8 million metric tons in 2023. Wheat yields across the Prairies are expected to decline by 17.6%, offsetting an anticipated 5.6% increase in the harvested area, which is estimated at 26.3 million acres.
Canola production in the country is projected to drop by 7.1% to 17.4 million tons. Yields for canola are set to fall by 9.8% to 35.0 bushels an acre. However, the harvested area for canola is expected to increase by 3.0% to 21.9 million acres.
On a more positive note, national soybean output is estimated to increase by 2.7% compared to the previous year, reaching 6.7 million tons. Despite this growth, soybean yields are estimated to decline by 3.7% to 44.2 bushels an acre. The harvested area for soybeans is anticipated to increase by 6.8% to 5.6 million acres.
Final production estimates for 2023 will be released on December 4.