According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil inventories are likely to have fallen last week. However, gasoline and distillate stocks are expected to see further increases after recent substantial builds.
Crude Stocks
Commercial crude stockpiles are projected to decrease by 900,000 barrels for the week ending on January 12th, reaching a total of 431.5 million barrels. Estimates from 10 analysts and traders range from a draw of 3.5 million barrels to a build of 2.7 million barrels. Out of the 10 respondents, four predict an increase in stocks while six foresee a decrease.
Gasoline Inventories
Following unexpected large increases over the past two weeks, gasoline inventories are forecasted to rise by an additional 2.5 million barrels, reaching a total of 247.5 million barrels. Estimates range from a build of 5 million barrels to a withdrawal of 2 million barrels.
Distillate Stocks
Stocks of distillates, mainly diesel fuel, are expected to increase by 600,000 barrels to a total of 133 million barrels. Forecasts range from a 3.5 million-barrel build to a 2.7 million-barrel draw.
Refinery Capacity Use
Refinery capacity use is anticipated to decrease by 0.6 percentage points to 92.3%. Forecasts range from unchanged levels to a decline of 1.1 percentage points. Two analysts did not provide a forecast.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s inventory data is set to be released on Thursday at 11 a.m. ET.
Here is a summary of the survey results:
| Analysts/Traders | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |——————————|——-|———-|————-|————–| | Again Capital | -2.8 | 1.8 | 2.3 | -0.8 | | Commodity Research Group | 0.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | -0.6 | | Confluence Investment Mgmt | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.5 | -0.5 | | DTN | -2.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | -0.5 | | Excel Futures | 2.7 | 3.2 | -1.5 | -1.1 | | Spartan Capital Securities | 1.3 | 2.9 | -2.7 | n/f | | Mizuho | -2.0 | 3.0 | 2.0 | -0.5 | | Price Futures Group | -2.0 | -2.0 | -2.0 | unch | | Ritterbusch and Associates | -3.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | -0.7 | | Tradition Energy | -1.8 | 5.0 | 3.0 | n/f | | AVERAGE | -0.9 | 2.5 | 0.6 | -0.6 |
Note: Numbers are in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is in percentage points.