According to the betting market Smarkets, GOP Rep. Tom Emmer of Minnesota is currently leading the race to become the next speaker among House Republicans. As the No. 3 House Republican, Emmer has a 23% chance of securing the position, while Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio and Rep. Patrick McHenry of North Carolina are both at around 15%. Following closely behind is Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma at 11%. Here is a chart to illustrate these odds.
However, it’s worth noting that betting markets have been unreliable in the past, as they can be influenced by narratives rather than accurate predictions. Despite this, Emmer remains a strong contender among the nine House Republicans who have declared their bids for speaker. As the majority whip, Emmer holds a high-ranking position within the House GOP leadership and is responsible for rallying support from other lawmakers.
Emmer is also known for his support of the cryptocurrency industry and serves as one of the co-chairs of the Congressional Blockchain Caucus. In April, he criticized the Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler during a hearing, stating that the existing SEC rules are detrimental to blockchain-based companies and hinder their growth. Emmer called for more flexibility and nuance in regulation to protect everyday Americans.
The race for speaker among House Republicans is still ongoing, and Emmer’s chances look promising. However, only time will tell who ultimately secures the position.
Speaker Candidates and Voting
Emmer and Hern, both members of the Republican Study Committee, a conservative group made up of House GOP lawmakers, are among the nine candidates for the role of speaker. However, Jordan and McHenry are not included in the list, despite some bettors showing favor towards them.
Initially, Jordan was the House GOP’s speaker nominee, but he was dropped from consideration after receiving increasing opposition from fellow Republicans. In the third round of voting, 25 lawmakers voted against him, compared to 22 in the second round and 20 in the first round.
In the absence of a clear leader, calls have been made for McHenry to take on the speaker position on a more permanent basis. It has been approximately three weeks since former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted.
Other GOP Speaker Candidates
In addition to Emmer and Hern, there are seven other declared candidates for speaker from the GOP side. These candidates are Rep. Jack Bergman of Michigan, Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida, Rep. Mike Johnson of Louisiana, Rep. Dan Meuser of Pennsylvania, Rep. Gary Palmer of Alabama, Rep. Austin Scott of Georgia, and Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas. The announcement of these candidates was made by Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, who holds the position of No. 4 House Republican.
The candidates will have an opportunity to make their pitches to their fellow House Republicans during a forum scheduled for Monday evening. Following this, House GOP lawmakers will participate in a secret ballot on Tuesday morning to select their nominee.
On Monday, U.S. stocks showed gains as traders closely monitored the 10-year Treasury yield’s flirtation with the significant 5% level. Additionally, market participants are focused on corporate earnings reports and the ongoing efforts to contain the Israel-Hamas war.